Medical Management Tool Helps Combat Influenza A(H1N1)

A new study describes a statistical tool, which could have the power to macro- and micromanage pandemic influenza outbreaks.

Researchers at Tel Aviv University (Israel) developed a set of modeling tools that is modular in design; the models are complicated when the existing data is good, but become simpler when key variables are missing. To complement the modeling tools, the researchers are using an extensive database, with over 10 years of combined data collected by a large network of hospital and medical clinics in Israel. The researchers also took into account that influenza A(H1N1) will attack more people than an annual seasonal flu, because most people have only limited immunity to the new influenza A(H1N1). These factors are worked into the model so that communities, hospitals, and bodies like the United Nations (UN) or the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) can make better decisions in planning. The new model might also be used to understand bio-terror attacks, should such a catastrophic event take place. The researchers hope to have a commercial version of the model available within three years.

"Our model provides guidance for complex decisions such as whether to close airports, schools, and travel routes, and how to distribute Tamiflu,” said lead researcher Professor Lewi Stone, Ph.D., of the department of life sciences at TAU. "It could be applied to very small populations as well as populations as large as 6 to 10 million people and more.”

"Based on our study of influenza outbreaks in Israel,” said Amit Huppert, M.D., of the Tel Hashomer Hospital (Israel), who is collaborating on the research, "we can estimate the rate at which the virus spreads in towns with a very young population. These communities are especially at risk. Communities in the U.S. with a high population of children can be advised to stock up on antivirals.”

Related Links:
Tel Aviv University
Tel Hashomer Hospital