Heart Failure Among the Elderly to Triple by 2060

A new study predicts that heart failure (HF) in the elderly will grow exponentially, entailing major health and economic consequences.

Researchers at Landspitali University Hospital (Reykjavik, Iceland) reported new data from the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES) study, a collaboration between the U.S. National Institute on Aging (Bethesda, MD, USA) and the Icelandic Heart Association (Reykjavik, Iceland). The current analysis included data from 5,706 randomly selected elderly participants (mean age 77, 58% men). The investigators used government data on current size, sex, and age distribution of the national population and predictions up to 2060.

After combining the data, the researchers assessed the prevalence of HF in the elderly population and sought to predict the number of elderly people likely to have HF in the future. The results showed that current prevalence of HF was 3.7% in both sexes combined, but it was higher in men (4.8%) compared to women (2.8%). The prevalence of HF increased along with patient age, from 1.9% in those 69 years of age or younger, to 6% in those 80 years of age and older.

The data was analyzed to estimate the number of elderly people (per age group) for the coming decades in both men and women (until 2060), concluding that the largest increases will be in the age groups of 70-79 years and 80 years and older, and predominantly in women. Based on the predicted age distribution and increase in the number of elderly people 70 years and older in the coming decades, patients with HF will have increased 2.3 fold by the year 2040 and 2.9 times by the year 2060. The study was presented at the European Society of Cardiolog (ESC) annual congress, held during August 2016 in Rome (Italy).

“Heart failure is a common condition worldwide and increases with age. Various disorders can cause heart failure, such as coronary heart disease, hypertension, obesity and diabetes. As these are more prevalent with age, the consequence is an increased population of elderly who may develop heart failure,” said lead author cardiologist Professor Ragnar Danielsen, MD. “The findings are a wake-up call for policy makers and healthcare providers that more needs to be done to prevent heart failure. This includes giving prompt treatment for heart attacks and encouraging adherence to preventative therapies and lifestyle changes afterwards.”

Congestive HF occurs when the heart is unable to pump sufficiently to maintain blood flow to meet the body's needs. Signs and symptoms commonly include shortness of breath, excessive tiredness, and leg swelling. Common causes of HF include coronary artery disease, previous myocardial infarction (MI), high blood pressure, atrial fibrillation (AF), valvular heart disease, excess alcohol use, infection, and cardiomyopathy of an unknown cause.

Related Links:
Landspitali University Hospital
U.S. National Institute on Aging
Icelandic Heart Association