New Risk Calculator Identifies Heart Disease Earlier in Postpartum Women

Cardiovascular disease in women often goes unrecognized until midlife, and standard risk calculators were built for older populations. Complications during pregnancy are linked to later heart disease, yet younger postpartum patients rarely receive formal assessment. This gap hampers timely prevention in a large, clinically active population. To help address this challenge, researchers have developed and validated a new prediction model to estimate future heart disease risk in reproductive-aged women.

McGill University researchers created the model using health records from more than 260,000 women in the United Kingdom, ages 15 to 45, who had given birth. Participants were followed for nearly four years after delivery to identify incident cardiovascular disease. The model was developed and then validated to identify individuals at higher risk years before traditional screening would typically occur.

The tool incorporates risk indicators that current calculators do not capture. These include hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, gestational diabetes, preterm birth, polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), depression, thyroid disorders, oral contraceptive use, and social deprivation. The findings indicate that some younger women commonly considered low risk may face elevated cardiovascular risk earlier than recognized, warranting closer surveillance after childbirth.

The study was published in JACC: Advances on May 27, 2026. The investigators note that integrating a practical calculator into routine postpartum care could support earlier monitoring, targeted lifestyle counseling, or referral to a specialist. Next steps include external validation in Canada and the United States and building an implementation-ready version within electronic health records.

“Heart disease is the leading cause of death in women, yet existing risk tools were developed in older populations and ignore factors unique to women,” said Robert Platt, professor in the Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health and director of the School of Population and Global Health.

“Millions of women who give birth each year are never considered candidates for cardiovascular risk assessment simply because of their age,” said co-author Kristian Filion, professor in the departments of medicine and epidemiology, biostatistics, and occupational health.

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