Model May Predict Final Menstrual Period

A new mathematical model based on the levels of two hormones can predict when perimenopausal women will have their final period, according to a new study.

Researchers at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA; USA) and the University of Tokyo (Japan) conducted a cohort study involving 554 women to examine whether a model that takes into account levels of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), estradiol, or urinary N-telopeptide could predict where an individual is on her timeline to final menstrual period (FMP). The researchers examined specified landmarks—2 years before, 1 year before, and the FMP—and determined the candidate markers that best predicted having crossed each landmark.

The researchers used the data to create formulas for the probability of having crossed each landmark, and calculated sensitivity and specificity. The final models included current estradiol and FSH, age, menopause transition stage, race/ethnicity, and whether serum was collected during the early follicular phase. The resulting model predicted the likelihood of perimenopausal women being two years away from their final period with 85% sensitivity and 77% specificity. The study was published ahead of print on March 26, 2013, in the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism.

“The model's discrimination—its ability to correctly rank women according to whether or not they had crossed a landmark—was excellent,” concluded lead author Gail Greendale, MD, of UCLA, and colleagues. “If further research bears out our approach, it could be the first step to developing web-based calculators and other tools women can use to estimate where they are in the menopause transition and how far away their final period is.”

Researchers have long been trying to find a way to predict when a woman's FMP will occur, since it can help determine the risk of other biological changes, including accelerated bone loss, which tends to happen in the final year of menstruation; starting an intervention one or two years before the FMP could lower future fracture risk.

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University of California Los Angeles
University of Tokyo