Life Expectancy Increasing at a Constant Rate

A review of longevity data from developed countries reveals that the human life span is increasing at a remarkably constant rate, suggesting that there is no natural limit on life expectancy. Accordingly, in about 60 years a greater percentage of the population will be reaching their one-hundredth birthday. The study was published in the May 10, 2002, issue of Science.

Although worldwide life expectancy has more than doubled in the past 200 years, many experts have been unable to imagine that the life span could increase even more. This means that plans are not being made for dealing with the social implications of an increasingly aged population.

In the current report, Drs. James W. Vaupel (Duke University, Durham NC, USA) and Jim Oeppen (Cambridge University, UK) reviewed longevity data from developed countries, including Australia, Iceland, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.S. They found that life expectancy in such countries is steadily increasing by three months a year, per year.

"The key issue for policymakers to understand from our study is that there appears to be no finite limit to life expectancy,” says Vaupel. "This has major implications for social issues such as budget allocations for the old and very old, and projections used to determine future pension, healthcare, and other needs.”

The researchers are not predicting immortality for the human race, but they do say that life expectancy should continue to rise over the foreseeable future. If the trend continues as it has, "record life expectancy will reach 100 in about six decades. It is striking that centenarians may become commonplace within the lifetime of people alive today.”



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