Large Surgeon Shortage Forecast in the USA

Largely due to an aging population, the US demand for surgery will increase almost 50% in some specialties by the year 2020, which could result in a large shortage of surgeons in these fields, according to a study published in the August 2003 issue of the Annals of Surgery.

Researchers found that surgeries performed mainly on older adults, such as cataract and heart surgery, will have the highest increase in demand by 2020. The demand for cardiothoracic surgery, for example, is forecast to increase by 42% and the demand for cataract surgery by 47%. In 2002, the 65-and-older age group will increase by 53%. Since the training of surgeons requires eight to 14 years, the researchers say there is not time to train enough surgeons to avoid a shortage.

Researchers used data from a 1996 survey of surgical services and census forecast data to reach their conclusions. The demand for general surgery (vascular, abdominal, gastrointestinal, hernia, breast, and pediatric surgery) is forecast to increase 31% by 2020. Urology surgeries (procedures on the kidney, prostate, and bladder) will increase 35%, while orthopedics (surgery of the knee, shoulder, and other joints) will increase 28%, the same as neurosurgery. The smallest increase, 14%, will occur in otolaryngology (ear, nose, throat). Many patients needing these services are under 15.

"We need to develop more effective ways to address the medical and surgical needs of older adults, as well as provide strategies to support surgeons,” said lead author Dr. David A. Etzioni, a clinical scholar in the division of general surgery at the University of California, Los Angeles, School of Medicine (USA).


Related Links:
UCLA Medical School