Statistical Tool Predicts COVID-19 Peaks Worldwide
|
By HospiMedica International staff writers Posted on 11 Jun 2020 |
|
Image: Data for active cases in severely affected countries with Equation (Photo courtesy of Frontiers)
A new study shows how a unique set of functions and probability distributions can predict forthcoming peaks in the spread of COVID-19.
Developed by researchers at Santa Fe Institute (NM, USA), Ege University (Bornova, Turkey), and other institutions, the tool is based on a q-statistical functional form that accurately describes all existing available data on active cases and deaths in most countries around the world, and can also predict forthcoming peaks satisfactorily. Using data from China, where the active case rate seems to have peaked, they first set the main parameters for the formula. Next, they applied it to other countries, including France, Brazil, and the United Kingdom, and found that it matched the evolution of the active cases and fatality rates over time.
The tool was developed following analysis of the active cases and deaths per day--based on inspection of public data--and the time evolution of the number of active cases, which showed a rather intriguing similarity with the distributions of volumes of stocks on Wall Street. The researchers claim it lies in the realm of complex systems, which includes not only high-frequency financial transactions, but also other fields, such anthropological issues, q-Weibull distribution-like systems, and biotech intercorporate networks. The study was published on May 29, 2020, in Frontiers in Physics.
“The present prediction algorithm could, in principle, be included within an internet app, which could access the data publicly available at a given website and automatically update the predicted dates and heights of the disease peaks of epidemics, such as the present Covid-19 one,” concluded study authors Constantino Tsallis, PhD, of Santa Fe Institute, and Ugur Tirnakli, PhD, of Ege University. “The functional form seems to be universal. Not just for this virus, but for the next one that might appear as well.”
The original financial graph appeared in a 2004 volume co-edited by Dr. Tsallis and the late 1969 Nobel Prize in Physics Murray Gell-Mann. Dr. Tsallis went on to develop developed q-statitics, also known as "Tsallis statistics" in the late 1980s, as a generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics to complex systems.
Related Links:
Santa Fe Institute
Ege University
Developed by researchers at Santa Fe Institute (NM, USA), Ege University (Bornova, Turkey), and other institutions, the tool is based on a q-statistical functional form that accurately describes all existing available data on active cases and deaths in most countries around the world, and can also predict forthcoming peaks satisfactorily. Using data from China, where the active case rate seems to have peaked, they first set the main parameters for the formula. Next, they applied it to other countries, including France, Brazil, and the United Kingdom, and found that it matched the evolution of the active cases and fatality rates over time.
The tool was developed following analysis of the active cases and deaths per day--based on inspection of public data--and the time evolution of the number of active cases, which showed a rather intriguing similarity with the distributions of volumes of stocks on Wall Street. The researchers claim it lies in the realm of complex systems, which includes not only high-frequency financial transactions, but also other fields, such anthropological issues, q-Weibull distribution-like systems, and biotech intercorporate networks. The study was published on May 29, 2020, in Frontiers in Physics.
“The present prediction algorithm could, in principle, be included within an internet app, which could access the data publicly available at a given website and automatically update the predicted dates and heights of the disease peaks of epidemics, such as the present Covid-19 one,” concluded study authors Constantino Tsallis, PhD, of Santa Fe Institute, and Ugur Tirnakli, PhD, of Ege University. “The functional form seems to be universal. Not just for this virus, but for the next one that might appear as well.”
The original financial graph appeared in a 2004 volume co-edited by Dr. Tsallis and the late 1969 Nobel Prize in Physics Murray Gell-Mann. Dr. Tsallis went on to develop developed q-statitics, also known as "Tsallis statistics" in the late 1980s, as a generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics to complex systems.
Related Links:
Santa Fe Institute
Ege University
New
Gold Member
Handheld Blood Glucose Analyzer
STAT-Site
New
Monitor/Defibrillator
Zenix
New
Medical-Grade Display
HL2316SHTB
Channels
Artificial Intelligence
view channel
Machine Learning Approach Enhances Liver Cancer Risk Stratification
Hepatocellular carcinoma, the most common form of primary liver cancer, is often detected late despite targeted surveillance programs. Current screening guidelines emphasize patients with known cirrhosis,... Read more
New AI Approach Monitors Brain Health Using Passive Wearable Data
Brain health spans cognitive and emotional functions and can fluctuate even in adults without diagnosed disease. Detecting early changes remains difficult in routine care and burdens specialty services... Read more
Critical Care
view channel
Automated IV Labeling Solution Improves Infusion Safety and Efficiency
Medication administration in high-acuity settings is often complicated by multiple concurrent infusions, making accurate line identification essential. In a 10-hospital intensive care unit study, 60% of... Read more
First-Of-Its-Kind AI Tool Detects Pulmonary Hypertension from Standard ECGs
Pulmonary hypertension is a progressive, life‑threatening disease that is frequently missed early because symptoms such as dyspnea are nonspecific and diagnostic delays can exceed two years.... Read more
Surgical Techniques
view channel
Continuous Monitoring with Wearables Enhances Postoperative Patient Safety
Postoperative hypoxemia on general surgical wards is common and often missed by intermittent vital sign checks. Undetected low oxygen levels can delay recovery and raise the risk of complications that... Read more
New Approach Enables Customized Muscle Tissue Without Biomaterial Scaffolds
Volumetric muscle loss is a traumatic loss of skeletal muscle that often leads to permanent functional impairment and limited reconstructive options. Current experimental strategies struggle to deliver... Read more
Patient Care
view channel
Wearable Sleep Data Predict Adherence to Pulmonary Rehabilitation
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a long-term lung disorder that makes breathing difficult and often disturbs sleep, reducing energy for daily activities. Limited engagement in pulmonary... Read more
Revolutionary Automatic IV-Line Flushing Device to Enhance Infusion Care
More than 80% of in-hospital patients receive intravenous (IV) therapy. Every dose of IV medicine delivered in a small volume (<250 mL) infusion bag should be followed by subsequent flushing to ensure... Read more
Business
view channel
GE HealthCare Leads Major European Initiative to Advance Cardio-Oncology Care
Cardiovascular complications are increasingly recognized among people undergoing or recovering from cancer treatment, driven by pre‑existing disease and the cardiotoxic effects of chemotherapy, radiotherapy,... Read more
