Simulation Technology Forecasts Casualties in Combat

The US Navy will soon be able to predict injuries and improve medical responses in any kind of attack on ships.

The Human Injury and Treatment (HIT) model, developed by the Office of Naval Research (ONR; Arlington, VA, USA) provides a comprehensive capability to forecast casualties encountered during combat operations aboard naval vessels. Unlike current survivability reports that detail a vessel's physical ability to withstand attacks, the HIT model focuses on human beings, placing them in sitting, standing, and other positions throughout a three-dimensional (3D) model of the vessel. It then calculates what injuries the crew on board could sustain, based on smoke, pressure, fragmentation, and other damage mechanisms resulting from an attack.

The HIT model also simulates personnel and patient movement and medical response, tracking outcomes for patients and their ability to return to duty within 72 hours after an attack. The medical and operational impact of crew injuries garnered from the HIT simulation can help the Navy to design ship medical facilities more efficiently in order to improve response times, as well as open up new possibilities in planning medical responses for such events. It will also help improve designs for Navy ships, increasing operational effectiveness in the aftermath of an attack.

“When a weapon hits, we know how the ship itself will be affected by blast, fragmentation, fire, and other damage mechanisms,” said William "Kip" Krebs, PhD, program officer in the ONR’s Warfighter Performance Department. “HIT allows us, for the first time, to accurately predict the impact to those sailors or marines aboard, both from a medical and crew-response perspective.”

The HIT model uses a variety of existing and developing injury algorithms for scoring the type and severity of injuries predicted, and the post-injury level of incapacitation. A manning model that simulates movement of personnel aboard functions iteratively with the tactical medical logistics (TML+) code, a medical response model predicting resource utilization and patient outcomes. The ONR is currently working to transition the technology to the Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division (Potomac, MD, USA) for further development and testing.

Related Links:
Office of Naval Research
Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division